Global End of Year Survey 2018 - The World Loses Confidence in Political Leaders 3 months ago



The World Loses Confidence in Global Leaders, 
according to the first and oldest Global Survey “End of the Year” Gallup International

PRESS RELEASE FROM ORB INTERNATIONAL / GALLUP INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION 


It is often said that during times of uncertainty we need our leaders to ‘step up’ – history looks back fondly on Winston Churchill, on Nelson Mandela, on Mahatma Gandhi and many others.  Yet while we witness global business leadership (Jack Ma, Jeff Bezos, Bill and Melinda Gates etc.), the latest survey from Gallup International, the world’s longest running global polling agency, reveals that negative attitudes towards our main political leaders across the world are growing. 

The survey carried out in 57 countries across the globe shows that although maintaining a positive image across the world, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, while grabbing top spot as the most positively evaluated leader (net score +20%), lost 6% compared with a year ago.  Last year’s number one – President Emmanuel Macron of France – has had his favourability on the global stage fall significantly (from +21 to +6%).   Both European leaders of course have also faced significant challenges at home in the last year.

US President Donald Trump remains unchallenged at the bottom of the ranking with a net score of -28%, while Russian President Vladimir Putin lost 16% of the positive views he was gathering last year. Putin’s favourability in his own country is also in decline, driven often by economic challenges at home.   

However, as with last year, Pope Francis remains the most trusted leader in the world with a net score of +28 (although even he lost points on last year).


 Full results are available here – Gallup International – Global Survey 2018

Kancho Stoychev, President GIA:

Tensions across the world are growing and leadership is in crisis almost everywhere. Are those tensions growing because of bad leadership or is bad leadership leading to growing tensions is not a productive question. Many point out that the gap between elites and masses is reacting intolerable levels and post WW2 global order is following apart. Mistrust in politics and political systems is on the rise and the fundamental question is not about how to find better representation of the will of the people but how the people can control their elected representatives more effectively. More direct democracy may be the answer which means that the right thing to ask is how to achieve it following recent negative experiences with the French referendum on the EU constitution, the Dutch one after it and the Brexit challenge”.

Methodology, Sample Size and Mode of Field Work:

The Gallup International End of Year Survey (EoY) is an annual tradition initiated by and designed under the chairmanship of Dr. George Gallup in 1977. It is conducted every year since then. This year it was carried out by the Gallup International Association and partners in 57 countries around the world, representing the population of all G20 countries (except China) and about 57% of the global population. 

Due to political, cultural or religious specifics some survey questions are not asked in all countries.

The question on political leaders was polled in 45 countries across the globe among a total of 46 952 persons. In each surveyed country a representative sample of around 1000 men and women was interviewed either face to face, via telephone or online. The margin of error for the survey is between 3% and 5% at 95% confidence level. The field work was conducted during October 2018 – January 2019.

 

EoY Survey Regions Coverage:

  • EU Total: Combines EU West and EU East sub-groups (n=13 615)
  • EU West: Austria, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK (n=7 510)
  • EU East: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Hungary (n=6 105)
  • Non-EU Europe: Albania, Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Switzerland, Ukraine (n=9 461)
  • USA (n=1 045)
  • Canada (n=600)
  • India (n=1 001)
  • Russia (n=1 000)
  • Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay , Peru (n=5 526)
  • East Asia: Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand, Vietnam (n=6 400)
  • West Asia: Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Turkey (n=5 671)
  • Middle East: Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia (n=5 351)
  • Africa: Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa (n= 2 815)
  • Australia & New Zealand (n=2 039)

 

About Gallup International

Gallup International Association (GIA) is the leading association in market research and polling and this year celebrates its 72nd anniversary.

 

For over 70 years Gallup International Members have demonstrated their expert ability to conduct multi-country surveys on a comparable basis and deliver the highest quality. Their Members are leading national institutes with a profound local knowledge of research methods and techniques, statistical sources, customs and culture differences of its own country and carefully selected by the Association Board. With only one Member agency per country, Members work together on a daily basis to share knowledge, new research techniques and tools, as well as to provide the most appropriate solutions to international research projects and service our clients to the best of our abilities. GIA has over 50 members and conducts research in over 100 countries.

End of Year Survey 2018 Participants

(GIA Members and Partners presented in alphabetical order)

 

Country

Vendor Company

Sample size

Fieldwork Dates

Method

Representativeness

Row %

AFGHANISTAN

ACSOR-Surveys

1 763

15-25.10.2018

F2F

National 18+

ALBANIA

Be Research LLC

1 040

08-18.11.2018

CAPI

National, 18-65

ARGENTINA

Voices! Research & Consultancy

1 002

02-15.10.2018

F2F, CAPI

National, 16+

ARMENIA

MPG LLC

1 111

17-22.11.2018

CAPI

National, 18+

AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan Research

1 028

13-14.12.2018

CAWI

 National

AUSTRIA

Österreichisches Gallup Institut

1 000

22.11-03.12.2018

CAWI

National, 14+

AZERBAIJAN

SIAR Research and Consulting Group

507

12.11.-04.12.2018

CATI

National, 18-64

BRAZIL

Lightspeed Research Limited

800

14-21.01.2019

CAWI

National, 18+

BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA

Mareco Index Bosnia

1 000

05-18.11.2018

CATI

National, 18+

BULGARIA

Gallup International

1 053

02-09.11.2018

CAPI

National, 18+

CANADA

Lightspeed Research Limited

600

14-21.01.2019

CAWI

National, 18-65

COLOMBIA

Centro Nacional de Consultoría

1 000

14-17.12.2018

CATI

National, 18+

CZECH REPUBLIC

MARECO Ltd. Praha

1 500

14.11-03.12.2018

F2F

National, 18+

ECUADOR

CEDATOS

700

26.11-16.12.2018

F2F

National, 16+

FINLAND

Taloustutkimus Oy  

1 134

07-11.12.2018

CAWI

National, 15+

FRANCE

BVA

1 000

23-29.11.2018

CAWI

National, 15+

GEORGIA

GORBI

1 008

18-25.11.2018

CAPI

National, 18+

GERMANY

Österreichisches Gallup Institut

1 000

03-07.12.2018

CAWI

National, 16+

GHANA

Candino Global

500

20.11-03.12.2018

CAPI

Urban, 18-64

HONG KONG

CSG (Consumer Search Group)

505

28.10-21.11.2018

Online

National, 18+

End of Year Survey 2018 Participants – Contd.

(GIA Members and Partners presented in alphabetical order)

 

Country

Vendor Company

Sample size

Fieldwork Dates

Method

Representativeness

Row %

HUNGARY

Österreichisches Gallup Institut

1 000

10-20.12.2018

CAWI

National

INDIA

Impetus Research Pvt. Ltd

1 001

22.10-30.11.2018

CATI

National, 18+

INDONESIA

Deka

1 040

14-25.11.2018

F2F

5 big cities, 18+

IRAQ

IIACSS

1 000

03-28.11.2018

CAPI

Urban, 18-65

ITALY

DOXA

1 072

16-30.11.2018

CAPI

National, 15+

JAPAN

NRC (Nippon Research Center)

1 155

01-13.11.2018

F2F

National, 15-79

JORDAN

MRO

1 000

29.10-20.11.2018

F2F

National, 18+

KAZAKHSTAN

BISAM – CENTRAL ASIA

1 400

22.11-11.12.2018

F2F CAPI

Urban, 18+

KOSOVO

Be Research LLC

978

06-18.11.2018

F2F

National, 18+

LATVIA

SKDS

1 005

29.11-05.12.2018

CAWI

National, 18-75

LEBANON

MRO

1 000

29.10-20.11.2018

F2F

National, 18+

MACEDONIA

BRIMA

1 212

22.11-06.12.2018

F2F, TAPI

National, 15+

MEXICO

BRAIN

500

10-14.12.2018

Online

Urban, 18-64

MOLDOVA

CBS – AXA S.R.L., I.M.

600

10-20.10.2018

CATI

National, 18+

NETHERLANDS

Motivaction International B.V.

503

15-19.01.2019

Online

National, 18-70

NEW ZEALAND

Roy Morgan Research

1 011

13-14.12.2018

CAWI

National 

NIGERIA

Market Trends International

800

28.11-05.12.2018

F2F, TAPI

National, 18+

PAKISTAN

Gallup Pakistan

1 000

13-20.10.2018

F2F

National, 18-65

PARAGUAY

INSTITUTO DE COMUNICACION Y ARTE – ICA

 515

 11/12.2018

Online 

Main Cities 

PERU

DATUM Internacional

1 009

09-14.11.2018

CAPI

National, 18-70

 

Country

Vendor Company

Sample size

Fieldwork Dates

Method

Representativeness

Row %

PHILIPPINES

PSRC

1 000

06-20.11.2018

F2F, PAPI

National, 18+

POLAND

MARECO POLSKA

1 017

20-30.10.2018

F2F, PAPI

National, 18+

REPUBLIC OF KOREA

Gallup Korea

1 500

08-28.11.2018

F2F

National, 18+

ROMANIA

TNS CSOP

530

15-29.11.2018

CATI

National, 18-64

RUSSIA

Romir

1 000

28.11-02.12.2018

F2F

National, 18+

SAUDI ARABIA

Mashora House for Public Opinion Polls

1 836

10-19.12.2018

CATI

National, 15+

SERBIA

TNS Medium Gallup

1 012

20.10-04.11.2018

F2F, TAPI

National, 18+

SOUTH AFRICA

Freshly Ground Insights (FGI)

1 515

23.10-29.11.2018

Online

National, 18+

SPAIN

SIGMA DOS

800

14-15.12.2018

CATI

National, 18+

SWITZERLAND

Opinion Plus

1 000

12-17.12.2018

Online panel

National, 15+

SYRIA

Syrian & Levant Market Compass

515

22.11-13.12.2018

F2F

National, 18+

THAILAND

Infosearch co.ltd

600

05-30.11.2018

F2F

National, 18+

TURKEY

Barem

991

01.11-07.12.2018

CATI

National, 18+

UK

ORB International (Opinion Research Business)

1 001

07-10.12.2018

Online

National, 18+

UKRAINE

Romir Ukraine

500

30.11-04.12.2018

Online

Urban, 18+

USA

Survey Monkey

1 045

06-07.12.2018

Online panel

National, 18+

VIETNAM

Indochina Research

600

05-23.11.2018

F2F, CAPI

Urban, 18-64

 

 

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