BREXIT TRACKER - August 2019 1 month ago

This month sees a significant increase in Brexit confidence – almost one in three (30%) now approve of the way the Government is handling the Brexit negotiations – up from 10% last month.

But this does not translate into a perception that we have got the right deal.  There is still much work for the new Prime Minister to convince the electorate that the deal he creates over the next three months is a good one. Less than one in five (18%) feel that as it stands, it is a good one…but in his defence nobody knows the detail of his proposed deal.

With this concern it’s not surprising to see ongoing economic uncertainty. 44% of us think that Britain will be economically worse off post Brexit (up from 42%) while 49% of us think personally we will be worse off financially (up from 47%).  The new Chancellor has three months to convince many that economically leaving the EU on Halloween is not an economic nightmare. 

Although having been in power less than two weeks there does appear to be some initial enthusiasm in a new approach.  43% (significantly higher than anything his party is polling now) agree that so far, he is performing better than voters had imagined he would as PM. Men (48%) are significantly more enthused by him than women (37%).

One in two (48%) also agree that EU leaders are acting unreasonably in refusing Boris’s request to drop the Irish backstop (just 27% here disagree, with 25% unsure).  While on the subject of leaving the EU without a deal, 46% agree that if the EU is unwilling to re-open negotiations on the withdrawal agreement then we should leave without a deal.   40% disagree that we should leave without a deal.

There does appear to be a Boris bounce – a new approach to Brexit is meeting with increased levels of approval.  43% also are pleasantly surprised by how he is performing as PM in the first few weeks – a number significantly higher than Conservative party voting intention. However economic uncertainty continues to increase, something which could turn out to be Johnson’s Achilles heel.

Full tables can be downloaded here – ORB August 2019 Brexit Tracker

Charts from these results can be downloaded here – Brexit Tracker August 2019

n = 2030. Fieldwork was conducted 31st July – 1st August 2019 

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