Regarding possible Brexit, the headline figure from last month is unchanged – so 52% stay and 48% leave.
What is interesting is that the very people who put DC into Downing street with a majority are those who are most undecided – 50% Cons voters want to stay, 50% want to leave. The schism within the Tory party on this issue is widely known but the poll clearly illustrates that those who voted him in with a majority 8 months ago are also those who could cause the Prime Minister to lose his referendum vote.
If you were running the remain campaign, the ‘risk’ of leaving is something that would appear to have traction. More than 4 in 5 (82% nationally, and even 83% among Tory supporters) accept that there is some/a great deal of risk to the UK if we left ….noticeably higher among women who are also more likely than men to vote to remain a part of the EU. Effective communication about the risks of Brexit to a male audience may well just about tip this in favour of a remain vote.
Now turning to Trident. Opinion in divided on this option but a majority (51%) are in favour of a full renewal of Trident. This would appear to have increased since last year - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30897643 The Scots remain the least convinced by a need for a nuclear Trident.
The rise of ISIS, and an increase in the security threat back home may well have turned the tide a little.
But what do we think of Jeremy Corbyn’s suggestion of retaining the Trident submarines but without nuclear warheads? – slightly fewer than one in three (29%) prefer this option. It has more support than a total ban in Trident renewal (20%). It may also be a sensible option for his own voter base – Labour voters are evenly split on a full renewal and a non nuclear warhead renewal (38% each)